EUR/USD outlook: The Euro keeps bullish stance but US CPI data likely to define near-term direction


The Euro keeps bullish bias in early Wednesday and regains traction after bulls took a breather (Tuesday’s Doji).

Full reversal of January’s pullback (1.0705/1.0483) generates initial signal of continuation of larger uptrend from 2022 low (0.9535).

Bullish daily studies add to positive picture, though overbought conditions warn of prolonged consolidation, as traders slowed pace, awaiting Thursday’s release of US December inflation report, which is expected to provide fresh direction signal.

Lack of economic releases from Europe today, would also add to quieter mode.

US inflation is expected to drop to 6.5% in Dec from 7.1% in Nov, with further easing in price pressures to signal that Fed’s measures in strong policy tightening started to impact high inflation that would open way for further easing of Fed’s stance on monetary policy and deflate dollar, while the single currency would benefit in such scenario.

Conversely, hotter than expected US CPI number would keep the Fed alerted of further and probably more aggressive tightening, which would bring the Euro under pressure.

Bulls eye initial resistance at 1.0786 (May 30 high) violation of which would expose pivotal Fibo barrier at 1.0901 (50% retracement of 1.2266 / 0.9535).

On the downside, converged daily Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen (1.0622/02 respectively) offer solid support which should contain dips to keep bulls intact, while break here would weaken near-term structure and risk deeper pullback towards key support at 1.0483 (Jan 6 trough).

Res: 1.0760; 1.0786; 1.0814; 1.0901.
Sup: 1.0712; 1.0622; 1.0602; 1.0483.

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