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NHL playoff tiers and buyer/seller 2.0: Where does each team stand as we approach trade season?

Posted By: techrossm
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The NHL trade deadline is less than eight weeks away, and while the big moves haven’t yet begun to roll in, the prep work is underway.

To browse through the top players who are expected to be available, check out The Athletic’s trade board. But which teams will be the ones looking to buy those players? As we approach the season’s midpoint, who’s looking like they might need a boost to get into the playoff field or fortify championship aspirations, and who’s ready to call it a day?

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To survey the field, The Athletic asked the writers who know each NHL team best two questions: 1) How confident are you in the team’s playoff chances? And 2) Will the team be a buyer or a seller at the deadline?

Here’s what they said.

Record: 12-24-4

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

Analysis: Nothing has changed in the month and change since we first looked at the Ducks and potential deadline plans. Technically, they could start now, as one of their biggest trade chips, John Klingberg, saw his contractual clause change from a no-move to a 10-team no-trade clause on Jan. 1. But they’ve got to get the veteran Swede playing a lot better to maximize his value. Fellow defensemen Kevin Shattenkirk and Dmitry Kulikov are also on expiring contracts. There were some earlier rumblings of another summer signing, Frank Vatrano, being put into play. Basically, general manager Pat Verbeek figures to have a lot of phone discussions over the next two months. Could a goalie even be part of them? — Eric Stephens

Record: 13-20-5

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: The Coyotes have been a tougher out than most thought they’d be, and after playing a road-heavy schedule in the first third of the season, they now can build on a home record that’s impressive (currently 7-3-2). But they still have a master rebuilding plan in its early stages and thus will listen on their pending UFAs (primarily Shayne Gostisbehere, Nick Bjugstad and Nick Ritchie). At some point, Jakob Chychrun is going to get traded, right? Right? — Eric Duhatschek

Record: 30-4-4

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Playoff tier: Lock

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Analysis: It is general manager Don Sweeney’s mandate to maximize his team’s championship opportunity this season. Nobody knows what is in store for Patrice Bergeron, David Pastrnak and David Krejci after 2022-23, when their contracts expire. The tricky part will be how to negotiate the little cap room the Bruins will have. — Fluto Shinzawa

Record: 19-15-2

Playoff tier: Bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: We listed the Sabres as long shots and sellers last time, but they’re playing their way into playoff contention. They have won seven of their past eight games and have a 9-3-1 record since Dec. 1. General manager Kevyn Adams has said he doesn’t want to disrupt the long-term plan with any moves he would make, but the Sabres playing this well could force him into becoming a deadline buyer. As long as players keep playing this way, Adams owes it to them to get every piece possible to help the team end an 11-year playoff drought. — Matthew Fairburn

Record: 19-14-7

Playoff tier: Bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Flames look better after a worrisome November and early December. But we’re erring on the side of caution with their playoff standing because of how packed the Pacific Division is and teams like Colorado and Edmonton nipping at Calgary’s heels for a wild-card spot. It’s all the more reason for the Flames to make a move at the deadline. The need for a scoring winger remains the same. But with Oliver Kylington still not available, the Flames may need to add a bottom-pairing defenseman to their shopping list. — Julian McKenzie

Record: 25-8-6

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Playoff tier: Lock

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: Hurricanes general manager Don Waddell is on the record saying that he believes a team is built in the offseason and the deadline is just for supplementing your needs. Carolina has made big moves in the past under this regime, specifically adding both Vincent Trocheck and Brady Skjei at the 2020 deadline. But both those moves were for players with term. The Hurricanes’ front office will likely just be looking for depth this season unless an injury requires something more. — Cory Lavalette

Record: 9-25-4

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

Analysis: Nothing has changed with the Blackhawks since prior to the season. They’re still destined to be among the worst teams in the league and will still be looking to trade anyone they can. Patrick Kane headlines the list if he waives his no-movement clause, but there are plenty of people behind him. The players with expiring contracts are the obvious trade bait, but it sounds like the Blackhawks are open to listening on just about everyone on their NHL roster. — Scott Powers

Colorado Avalanche

Record: 19-15-3

Playoff tier: Safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Avalanche are in a weird spot, just because they’ve yet to show what they can be when fully healthy. Gabriel Landeskog has yet to play a game, and everyone in the team’s top-six forward group aside from Mikko Rantanen has missed games. Josh Manson and Bowen Byram have been out for extended periods, too. If you’re Chris MacFarland and the Avalanche front office, do you go all-in before knowing if the team will ever be fully healthy? The core is still the same from last season’s Cup-winning club, so it would make sense to go for a back-to-back championship, though perhaps not recklessly. — Peter Baugh

Record: 11-24-2

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: The Blue Jackets are cruising toward their worst season and battling with Chicago and Anaheim for the bottom spot in the standings. This nightmare of a season is no longer about 2022-23 but the future, near and far. To that end, the trade deadline could see some significant departures, especially with pending unrestricted free agents — forward Gus Nyquist, defenseman Vladislav Gavrikov and goaltender Joonas Korpisalo. But you wonder how aggressive general manager Jarmo Kekalainen might be. It’s not a pretty picture in Columbus right now, and he might take bold steps to reshape what is pretty obviously a flawed roster. — Aaron Portzline

Record: 23-11-6

Playoff tier: Safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: If it wasn’t for the Stars’ history of lulls in the second half of the season providing a cautionary tale, you’d be tempted to call them a lock for the playoffs. They should make it and should be buyers at the deadline, with Denis Gurianov and Anton Khudobin as their primary selling pieces. Those two players carry vastly different circumstances for the market to consider. Dallas could look to add a top-six forward or a second-pairing defenseman, with the latter likely taking priority. However, given the cap situation and what they have coming up through the system, they will have to be calculated buyers. — Saad Yousuf

Record: 16-14-7

Playoff tier: Long shot

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: The Red Wings were a great early story, and really, they’ve done well to stay in the fight recently — even as things have taken a downturn over the past month. But as some of the East’s muscle has started to find its form, the Red Wings have dropped out of the playoff picture, and it’s hard to see them chasing down more talented, proven teams down the stretch run. They have plenty of pending unrestricted free agents who could be in play at the deadline, including some who should draw real attention from contenders. Olli Määttä has been a strong defensive presence and stabilizing influence. Oskar Sundqvist brings playoff elements and experience. But all eyes will be on Tyler Bertuzzi and Dylan Larkin (though the latter has a no-trade clause) to see if Detroit can get deals done with the two before the deadline — and what will happen if they can’t. — Max Bultman

Edmonton Oilers

Record: 21-17-2

Playoff tier: Bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Analysis: A roster led by Connor McDavid demands the Oilers be aggressive buyers. General manager Ken Holland’s primary need is a left-handed defenseman who can suppress offense and form a successful tandem with one of Tyson Barrie or Evan Bouchard. Secondary needs include a right-handed center/winger who can help kill penalties and a tough, edgy Zack MacEwen-style winger. Goaltending, while not specifically a need, is an area to monitor as the deadline nears. — Allan Mitchell

Record: 18-18-4

Playoff tier: Long shot

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: If the Panthers were a smart bet to right the ship, it would’ve happened already. Not much has changed; they’re an above-average five-on-five with bad special teams and subpar goaltending … but now, if you go by their .500 points percentage, they’re closer to the Flyers than the Sabres. Overall, they’re six points out of the wild card and nine out of third in the Atlantic. Yikes. Also, they’re in cap hell and the Canadiens hold their first-round pick. Minimizing the possibility that they have to send a top-five selection to Montreal might be the only motivation left. — Sean Gentille

Record: 22-14-6

Playoff tier: Safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: Quick confession here: I’m not super high on the Kings making the playoffs, but I’m also of the belief they need to be listed above the “bubble” tier. First-place Vegas is probably too talented to track down, but L.A. is going to be in a battle with Seattle, Edmonton and Calgary for the other two Pacific Division playoff spots. A second-half dip could also land the Kings in the wild-card mix, and that’s where general manager Rob Blake can make a difference with a trade, perhaps by addressing the long-time need for a top-four defenseman on the left side or adding a third-line center as a rental. The key will be pulling off a move that doesn’t mortgage away a prime asset that jeopardizes building a sustainable winner. — Eric Stephens

Record: 22-13-2

Playoff tier: Safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: When Version 1.0 ran the morning of Nov. 25, the Wild were a prototypical .500 team, at 9-8-2 and about to be 9-9-2 with a loss to the Leafs that night. They were getting inconsistent goaltending, having trouble finding their identity and in dire need of secondary scoring. They’re 13-4-0 since, getting great goaltending, playing like a heavy, solid defensive team and getting scoring throughout their lineup. Oh, how things have changed. What hasn’t changed (for 22 years) is their need to improve up the middle. The Wild are the seventh-worst faceoff team (46.7 percent) in the NHL, and while Sam Steel has contributed between Kirill Kaprizov and Mats Zuccarello, it’s hard to buy into them being a legit contender with their current cast of centers. — Michael Russo

Montreal Canadiens

Record: 15-21-3

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

Analysis: General manager Kent Hughes set the bar pretty high before the season started, saying he hoped to acquire another first-round pick in exchange for one of the many veterans he wishes to move. Sean Monahan will need to be healthy and effective to give him this opportunity unless Joel Edmundson picks up his play and becomes again a quality shutdown for a playoff team. Probable unrestricted free agents like Jonathan Drouin and Evgenii Dadonov have not been able to raise their value, and as much as moving contracts like Mike Hoffman’s and Joel Armia’s would provide relief, trading them seems like a very long shot. — Marc Antoine Godin

Record: 18-14-6

Playoff tier: Bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: Mattias Ekholm’s name is floating around again as a potential trade chip for David Poile, and he could use more futures, but that would also mean acknowledging that this team isn’t going anywhere. Unless it falls completely off the map, Poile is more likely to be a buyer. The Predators put high value/emphasis on making the playoffs, even as their fans grow increasingly disillusioned with being stuck in the middle. — Joe Rexrode

Record: 24-12-3

Playoff tier: Safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: Look, it’s too early to be a lock when there are so many competitive teams in one division. And the Devils have lost a lot of the early lead they gained on their Metro competitors. That’s what keeps them in “safe bet” territory. Given some of their recent slides, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them add a piece or two at the deadline. Or maybe they buy an internal rental (like Damon Severson) to keep their defense core intact for the postseason. — Shayna Goldman

Record: 22-17-2

Playoff tier: Bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: Despite being out of the playoff race at last season’s deadline, general manager Lou Lamoriello didn’t make a single trade. Then in the offseason, despite suggestions that changes were coming, the only notable move was trading a first-round pick for Alexander Romanov. He has to do something more at some point, right? The Islanders’ window to make the playoffs and maybe even make a run is still open, but it sure looks like they will have to add at least a forward or two for that to be realistic. — Kevin Kurz

Record: 22-12-6

Playoff tier: Safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Patrick Kane-Rangers trade possibility still exists and will until he’s either traded or decides to stay in Chicago. But the Rangers have bounced back from a mediocre first 25 games to put themselves in strong playoff position, so general manager Chris Drury may decide depth additions at forward and on defense may be the best course of action at the deadline rather than a home-run swing. — Arthur Staple

Record: 18-17-3

Playoff tier: Bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: I wish we had a “stand pat” option because that’s what I think is going to happen for Ottawa around the trade deadline. To the Senators’ credit, they have pushed themselves to the periphery of the playoff race with their improved play over the past six weeks. But right now, it’s hard to imagine them being an aggressive buyer or seller at the deadline. Maybe if they can pass a couple of teams and get that deficit down to two or three points, we can see a case for them trying to add a piece or two. But right now it feels like the status quo is the best option. They’re hoping to get Josh Norris back at some point, and his return should have the same boost as a new acquisition. And now that Artem Zub has re-signed, it doesn’t feel like Ottawa has any valuable pieces to move at the trade deadline. Maybe they would entertain trading Cam Talbot if they fall out of the race, but it feels more likely that they would want to keep him in the fold. — Ian Mendes

Philadelphia Flyers

Record: 15-17-7

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive seller

Analysis: The Flyers will be selling at the trade deadline. The only question is just how many pieces they’ll choose to move. The expiring contracts — namely, James van Riemsdyk and Justin Braun — are near locks to be moved as long as there is sufficient interest. But might the Flyers look to offer up younger players and/or those with term left on the contracts, too? Kevin Hayes hasn’t clicked with John Tortorella so far, for example. Could they explore the market for him? It all depends on a few as-of-yet unknown factors. Will the Flyers’ coaching staff deem anyone currently on the roster to clearly be “not part of the solution?” Will the Flyers’ ownership concede to the inevitable that a full-fledged pivot to a rebuild mentality is necessary? And will Chuck Fletcher still be the general manager once the trade deadline rolls around? — Charlie O’Connor

Record: 19-13-6

Playoff tier: Bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Penguins will have to sell before they can buy because of cap tightness, but they have deficiencies they must address to assure themselves a 17th consecutive playoff spot. They need to improve by adding a bottom-six center and winger, which means they might have to find a way to move the likes of a Danton Heinen, Kasperi Kapanen or Brian Dumoulin before trying to add. — Rob Rossi

Record: 12-20-8

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: No team has made the playoffs in the salary cap era with fewer than 16 wins in its first 41 games. The Sharks have 12 in their first 40. They have pending unrestricted free agents to trade, including Nick Bonino, Matt Nieto and James Reimer, but the biggest intrigue will involve Timo Meier, a pending restricted free agent with a $10 million qualifying offer this summer, and Erik Karlsson, a Norris Trophy contender with four years at $11.5 million left on his deal and a no-move clause. — Corey Masisak

Seattle Kraken

Record: 21-12-4

Playoff tier: Bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Pacific Division is very much up for grabs, so right now, the bubble seems fitting for Seattle. Whether the Kraken buy or sell is an interesting question. Last year, they sold and accumulated a ton of assets they could move to improve this year. But I can’t see them being the most aggressive buyer, either. If management’s to make a move, it has to be a long-term consideration and not just someone to help down the stretch. — Shayna Goldman

Record: 19-17-3

Playoff tier: Bubble

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: Even before the injuries to Ryan O’Reilly, Vladimir Tarasenko and Torey Krug, it seemed like a retool was the right choice. Now that they’ll be without all three for more than month, it makes even more sense. Sure it’s possible for the team to go on a good run and add them as re-enforcements, but with O’Reilly and Tarasenko among the top-available pending unrestricted free agents if healthy, it may prove difficult for general manager Doug Armstrong to turn down offers that could help revive an inconsistent roster. — Jeremy Rutherford

Record: 24-13-1

Playoff tier: Lock

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Lightning have been aggressive buyers the past few trade deadlines, and for good reason. They’ve been to three straight Stanley Cup Finals and have the team to make a push for another trip. The star core is there, but they’ve made smart deals at deadline to bolster depth. Who will this year’s Brandon Hagel or Nick Paul? — Joe Smith

Record: 23-9-7

Playoff tier: Lock

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Aggressive buyer

Analysis: Everything is riding on the playoffs this season in Toronto — the future of general manager Kyle Dubas, the future of Auston Matthews (who’s eligible for a contract extension in July), the future direction of the team, essentially. That makes it likelier than not that the front office will be aggressive in addressing needs ahead of the trade deadline. The Leafs, led by Dubas and team president Brendan Shanahan, have built another strong team, but they still have a clear hole on the second line and have yet to replace defenseman Jake Muzzin, who may not return this season. Dubas needs to ensure this team is as strong and deep as it can possibly be for the postseason. A first-round victory, at minimum, is a must. — Jonas Siegel

Record: 17-18-3

Playoff tier: Not happening

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Seller

Analysis: It’s becoming increasingly clear that the Canucks aren’t a legitimate playoff contender at the same time that an extension for pending unrestricted free agent Bo Horvat looks unlikely. That positions Vancouver to own the biggest rental trade deadline chip. The club also appears likely to trade pending UFA Luke Schenn and has a decision to make on Andrei Kuzmenko’s long-term future. — Harman Dayal

Vegas Golden Knights

Record: 27-12-2

Playoff tier: Lock

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: The Golden Knights’ current playoff probability is 99 percent. Despite a mediocre stretch recently, largely fueled by injuries, they are still looking like a lock for the postseason. As mentioned in the last projection, I think the Golden Knights could be looking to add a winger at the deadline. It would likely be in the low- to mid-cap-hit range, because there’s not a lot of salary room to work, but Vegas could be looking for an upgrade to Phil Kessel, who has struggled. — Jesse Granger

Record: 22-14-6

Playoff tier: Safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: With an 11-2-2 December, the Caps catapulted from 12th in the Eastern Conference to comfortably in position for a ninth straight playoff berth. As a result, it’s a safe bet they’re going to be buyers. What exactly will they be buying? Well, that depends. With top-six forwards Nicklas Backstrom and Tom Wilson returning from long-term injuries and No. 1 defenseman John Carlson sidelined indefinitely, Washington’s lineup suddenly has a lot of depth up front and not enough on the back end. Even with Carlson expected to return prior to the playoffs and cap space tight, the blue line could probably use bulletproofing — just in case the injury bug strikes again. — Tarik El-Bashir

Record: 25-13-1

Playoff tier: Safe bet

Trade deadline buyer or seller? Buyer

Analysis: Winnipeg’s injury troubles led to a late December string of mediocre games, but the Jets started winning again even before Blake Wheeler, Nikolaj Ehlers, Cole Perfetti and Nate Schmidt returned to the lineup. Now nearly back to full health, this is a playoff team with the potential to win a series. So, what do they do about it? I think the odds favor tweaks — veteran additions to cement the PK and team depth, even though young call-ups have acquitted themselves well — but, with so much uncertainty about Wheeler, Mark Scheifele, Connor Hellebuyck and Pierre-Luc Dubois’ long-term futures, the Jets may be tempted to get more aggressive in their search. They traded Bryan Little’s contract and stayed out of LTIR this season for a reason; they’ll have cap space to work with and a desire to go deep. — Murat Ates

Tiers at a glance

Playoff tiers and buyers/sellers 2.0, with current points percentage:

Eastern Conference Playoff tier Buyer/Seller Points %

Lock

Agg. buyer

.842

Lock

Agg. buyer

.679

Lock

Buyer

.718

Lock

Buyer

.645

Safe bet

Buyer

.654

Safe bet

Buyer

.625

Safe bet

Buyer

.595

Bubble

Buyer

.561

Bubble

Buyer

.579

Bubble

Buyer

.556

Bubble

Seller

.513

Long shot

Seller

.527

Long shot

Seller

.500

Not happening

Seller

.324

Not happening

Agg. seller

.474

Not happening

Agg. seller

.423
Western Conference Playoff tier Buyer/Seller Points %

Lock

Buyer

.683

Safe bet

Buyer

.654

Safe bet

Buyer

.650

Safe bet

Buyer

.622

Safe bet

Buyer

.595

Safe bet

Buyer

.554

Bubble

Agg. buyer

.550

Bubble

Buyer

.622

Bubble

Buyer

.563

Bubble

Buyer

.553

Bubble

Seller

.526

Not happening

Seller

.487

Not happening

Seller

.408

Not happening

Seller

.400

Not happening

Agg. seller

.350

Not happening

Agg. seller

.289

(Photos in top graphic of Antti Raanta, Igor Shesterkin and Brock Boeser: Joe Sargent, Mark LoMoglio and Jeff Vinnick / NHLI via Getty Images)