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USD/CHF trade idea: How to play the short term trend accelerating higher

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Part 1) introduction

VolatilityMarkets suggests trend-inspired trades that capitalize on market trends.

In the short term USDCHF has been accelerating higher. In the long term USDCHF has been accelerating higher. With the short term trend being the stronger of the two, we propose a long trade idea with a time horizon.

Part 2) trade idea details

2A) Trade Idea Graph

2b) Intraday Predictions

Buy $ 473,932 USD, or 4.74 lots of USDCHF, take profit at $ 0.9389 level with 25.06% odds for a $ 1,705 USD gain, stop out at $ 0.9336 with 50.0% odds for a $ 1,000 USD loss through O/N time horizon.

Part 3) USD/CHF trend analysis

USD/CHF last price was $ 0.935547. The short term trend accelerating higher is stronger than the long term trend accelerating higher. This trade goes long when the last change was higher and accelerating.

Part 4) USD/CHF value analysis

Over the past 20 days, the USDCHF price increased 12 days and decreased 8 days. For every up day, there were 0.67 down days. The average return on days where the price increased is 0.2687% The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2512% Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 1.21% percent. Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.0605% percent.

Part 5) USD/CHF worst/best case scenario analysis

Within 1 week, our worst case scenario where we are 95% certain that this level won’t trade for USDCHF, is $ 0.929795 , and the best case scenario overnight is $ 0.941299 . levels outside of this range are unlikely, but still possible, to trade. We are 50% confident that $ 0.9336 could trade and that $ 0.9389 could trade. These levels are within statistical probability.

Key Takeaways:

  • Price today $ 0.935547.

  • Over the past 20 days, the USDCHF price increased 12 days and decreased 8 Days.

  • For every up day, there were 0.67 down days.

  • The average return on days where the price increased is 0.2687%.

  • The average return on days where the price decreased is -0.2512%.

  • Over the past 20 Days, the price has increased by 1.21% percent.

  • Over the past 20 days, the average return per day has been 0.0605% percent.

  • Over the past 20 days, The price has on average been accelerating: 4.0884 pips per day higher.

  • Over the last session, the price increased by 110.62 pips.

  • Over the last session, the price increased by 1.1824 %.

  • Over the last session, the price accelerated by 109.6 pips.